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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 11 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 9 games
89%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 9 games
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Mira · 8 games
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 8 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 7 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 7 games
100%

Virtus.pro

Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 15 games
87%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 13 games
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 464 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
247 picks · 220 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
244 picks · 139 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 329 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
234 picks · 677 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
233 picks · 361 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 72%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total87% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:36
Team Spirit 71%Virtus.pro 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
59% · 90 games46% · 346 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
48% · 336 games51% · 146 games
Faceless VoidKiritych
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinyLarl
48% · 341 game51% · 395 games
Nature's Prophetsayuw
Nature's Prophet
Mirana
MiranaMira
53% · 241 game50% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
46% · 241 game49% · 197 games
TechiesFng
Techies
Game 2prediction correct40:16
Team Spirit 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
48% · 253 games52% · 317 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
49% · 186 games55% · 12 games
OmniknightKiritych
Omniknight
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
47% · 106 games51% · 235 games
Primal BeastNoticed
Primal Beast
Lion
LionMira
53% · 146 games46% · 237 games
Batridersayuw
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
51% · 253 games50% · 143 games
Crystal MaidenFng
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct36:17
Team Spirit 71%Virtus.pro 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYatoro
52% · 97 games52% · 112 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
48% · 137 games46% · 211 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
54% · 238 games47% · 137 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
48% · 201 game51% · 184 games
Batridersayuw
Batrider
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
47% · 132 games55% · 161 game
PugnaFng
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 87%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3