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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
75%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Lelis · 12 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
80%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Gunnar · 9 games
67%

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Arms · 2 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Arms · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 462 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 416 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
266 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
247 picks · 220 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
243 picks · 138 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
237 picks · 328 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
235 picks · 676 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
232 picks · 361 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
nouns 73%GRIN esports 27%
The model gave 73% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoYuma
50% · 4 games49% · 51 game
Troll WarlordDouble King
Troll Warlord
Abaddon
AbaddonGunnar
46% · 38 games49% · 216 games
MagnusDaaD-
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierStormstormer
58% · 145 games40% · 120 games
Crystal MaidenBloody Nine
Crystal Maiden
Batrider
BatriderLelis
52% · 121 game
Pugna
PugnaFly
58% · 79 games
Game 2prediction correct33:10
nouns 75%GRIN esports 25%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 29:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuma
54% · 52 games56% · 54 games
BrewmasterDaaD-
Brewmaster
Doom
DoomGunnar
50% · 169 games46% · 180 games
WindrangerDouble King
Windranger
Visage
VisageStormstormer
57% · 49 games45% · 368 games
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
42% · 171 game
Techies
TechiesFly
59% · 161 game
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 88%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2