ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kleeloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 14 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Noticed · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 458 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
243 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
239 picks · 133 bans
Nature's Prophet
232 picks · 674 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 325 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 71%
Hero pool strength61% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Team Klee 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:05.
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Team Klee 36%Virtus.pro 64%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2