ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Keeper of the Lightsignature
DJ · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 4 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
Rubick
DJ · 4 games
Shadow Demon
DJ · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
Talon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 12 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 456 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
241 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
239 picks · 131 bans
Nature's Prophet
232 picks · 669 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Pangolier
229 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:13
Bleed Esports 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreJaCkky
Faceless VoidAkashi
KunkkaMikoto
PangolierCHYuan
Bounty HunterPoloson
Primal BeastWs
Winter WyvernDJ
HoodwinkJhocam
45% · 13 games
BanePonyo
Game 2prediction missed20:31
Bleed Esports 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoJaCkky
BrewmasterWs
Arc WardenMikoto
MorphlingAkashi
Shadow DemonDJ
Dragon KnightCHYuan
MiranaPoloson
LionJhocam
57% · 90 games
Treant ProtectorPonyo
Game 3prediction missed12:28
Bleed Esports 55%Talon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidJaCkky
MorphlingAkashi
PangolierMikoto
Templar AssassinCHYuan
EnchantressPoloson
MarsWs
Winter WyvernDJ
BatriderJhocam
44% · 140 games
Crystal MaidenPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 53%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3