ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Keeper of the Lightsignature
DJ · 7 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 9 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ken · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Techies
Bombi · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 454 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
240 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
238 picks · 130 bans
Nature's Prophet
231 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:21
Bleed Esports 52%Neon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerJaCkky
Void SpiritKen
KunkkaMikoto
MarsJG
ChenPoloson
TechiesBombi
Bounty HunterDJ
Game 2prediction correct24:17
Bleed Esports 53%Neon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMikoto
Void SpiritKen
Faceless VoidJaCkky
MagnusJG
Shadow DemonDJ
HoodwinkBombi
EnchantressPoloson
Game 3prediction missed15:27
Bleed Esports 51%Neon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreJaCkky
Templar AssassinKen
PangolierMikoto
MagnusJG
Keeper of the LightPoloson
TechiesBombi
RubickDJ
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 51%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3