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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chimera Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 14 games
86%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 13 games
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 9 games
67%
Spectre
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
78%

Chimera Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Nande · 4 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 4 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Lion
Lion
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bb3px · 3 games
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Chuvash · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 449 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
277 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
238 picks · 214 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
232 picks · 129 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
230 picks · 657 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
226 picks · 316 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:18
Virtus.pro 70%Chimera Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
48% · 140 games52% · 239 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
51% · 223 games48% · 557 games
Ember Spiritre1bl
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
51% · 402 games51% · 246 games
MagnusBb3px
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressFng
52% · 276 games49% · 214 games
HoodwinkOneJey
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
47% · 634 games52% · 419 games
TechiesChuvash
Techies
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Virtus.pro 71%Chimera Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
47% · 111 games47% · 304 games
Ember Spiritre1bl
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
54% · 178 games49% · 188 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Huskar
HuskarSquad1x
59% · 37 games39% · 35 games
Winter WyvernBb3px
Winter Wyvern
Techies
Techiessayuw
52% · 247 games48% · 98 games
Centaur WarrunnerOneJey
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
51% · 136 games55% · 84 games
Vengeful SpiritChuvash
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2