ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 8 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 5 games
Rubick
Hishge · 5 games
Techies
Bombi · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
302 picks · 440 bans
Phoenix
275 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 444 bans
Lion
230 picks · 213 bans
Tusk
229 picks · 214 bans
Nature's Prophet
228 picks · 646 bans
Vengeful Spirit
227 picks · 124 bans
Pangolier
219 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:26
Aurora Gaming 70%Neon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:48.
Game 2prediction missed46:10
Aurora Gaming 70%Neon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:04.
Game 3prediction missed32:21
Aurora Gaming 70%Neon Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 46:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 70%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3