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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 32 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 32 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 26 games
62%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 26 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
69%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 23 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 20 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
535 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
498 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 369 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
404 picks · 219 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
393 picks · 286 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 310 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 879 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:29
Tundra Esports 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
54% · 287 games56% · 341 game
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
49% · 578 games49% · 672 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Windranger
WindrangerPure~
48% · 299 games49% · 400 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskAri
47% · 659 games44% · 299 games
SnapfireRiddys
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
51% · 390 games54% · 501 game
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Tundra Esports 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
53% · 180 games60% · 48 games
Broodmothergotthejuice
Broodmother
Puck
Puckbzm
47% · 405 games48% · 221 game
Axepma
Axe
Largo
Largo33
60% · 148 games47% · 461 game
TinyNiku
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
50% · 474 games49% · 288 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerWhitemon
48% · 145 games44% · 334 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed19:37
Tundra Esports 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 52:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterbzm
48% · 298 games54% · 243 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
50% · 188 games49% · 429 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
50% · 97 games47% · 52 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
53% · 411 games51% · 124 games
VenomancerRiddys
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
49% · 244 games49% · 390 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3