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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
REKONIXloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

REKONIX

Tiny
Tiny
TraVins · 23 games
39%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 18 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
dalul · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 15 games
67%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 14 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
inYourdreaM · 14 games
36%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 40 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 26 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 24 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
535 picks · 331 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
498 picks · 590 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 369 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
404 picks · 219 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
393 picks · 286 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 310 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 879 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
337 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:29
REKONIX 37%Nigma Galaxy 63%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezTraVins
54% · 138 games49% · 291 game
Monkey Kingrincyq
Monkey King
Puck
PuckinYourdreaM
48% · 361 game51% · 127 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
54% · 175 games51% · 271 game
AxeDavai
Axe
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkdalul
51% · 441 game46% · 299 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockVarizh
50% · 274 games47% · 401 game
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct22:40
REKONIX 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaTraVins
47% · 52 games45% · 187 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Slardar
SlardarFbz
50% · 420 games40% · 245 games
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
50% · 369 games52% · 99 games
LargoNo!ob
Largo
Windranger
Windrangerdalul
58% · 249 games50% · 260 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Lich
LichVarizh
54% · 55 games51% · 354 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2