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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 6 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 5 games
40%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Copy · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 3 games
67%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 21 game
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 18 games
61%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 435 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
274 picks · 409 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 205 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
228 picks · 210 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
227 picks · 637 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 114 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
216 picks · 333 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Ninja Penguins 51%MarsBet Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 41:21.
Game 2prediction missed27:34
Ninja Penguins 51%MarsBet Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 42:15.
Game 3prediction correct24:7
Ninja Penguins 51%MarsBet Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 32:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 51%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3