DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 23 games
Tiny
Hellscream · 23 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
GamerLegion
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 25 games
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 22 games
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 21 game
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
533 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
499 picks · 586 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 363 bans
Rubick
399 picks · 217 bans
Jakiro
394 picks · 290 bans
Puck
342 picks · 871 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 311 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% GamerLegion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
Virtus.pro 50%GamerLegion 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistTimado
UrsaGhost
PangolierAbed
Storm SpiritRCY
TidehunterSabeRLight-
LargoFayde
LichFly
GrimstrokeBignum
LionHellscream
PhoenixSpeeed
Game 2prediction missed6:34
Virtus.pro 52%GamerLegion 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerTimado
LifestealerGhost
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritRCY
Void SpiritAbed
SlardarFayde
RubickHellscream
TechiesBignum
LichFly
Shadow DemonSpeeed
Game 3prediction missed8:38
Virtus.pro 53%GamerLegion 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
LunaGhost
Storm SpiritAbed
Ember SpiritRCY
TinyTimado
UnderlordFayde
HoodwinkHellscream
RubickSpeeed
LichFly
TechiesBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3