ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 1:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Level UPloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 4 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 435 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 409 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Lion
228 picks · 204 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 207 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 636 bans
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
216 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
Ninja Penguins 60%Level UP 40%
The model gave 60% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritCopy
Storm SpiritPanda
WeaverLowskill
PhoenixDelight
Primal BeastCorrupted
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 71%
Series resultNinja Penguins 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1