ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MAG.Yolowin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MAG.Yolo
Elder Titanoften banned
冷鸟 · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 1 game
Evil Rabbit
Luna
Q7 · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 433 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 409 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Lion
226 picks · 204 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 635 bans
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
215 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MAG.Yolo 49%Evil Rabbit 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo.
Game 2prediction missed
MAG.Yolo 49%Evil Rabbit 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 51%
Series resultMAG.Yolo 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2