ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Go alongwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dark Horseloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Go along
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
Dark Horse
Clockwerk
sheep · 1 game
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Go along
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Go along
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:16
Go along 55%Dark Horse 45%
The model gave 55% on Go along — the game was taken by Go along in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusStorm
Lionsheep
Game 2prediction missed19:43
Go along 58%Dark Horse 42%
The model gave 58% on Go along — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusStorm
Clockwerksheep
Game 3prediction correct36:14
Go along 59%Dark Horse 41%
The model gave 59% on Go along — the game was taken by Go along in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritStorm
Clockwerksheep
Model check result
Model favoriteGo along · 63%
Series resultGo along 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3