ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionO+Orrai + 4loss 0:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TTcuhetewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Orrai + 4
No games played over 6 months.
Tcuhete
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Orrai + 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Orrai + 4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Orrai + 4 62%Tcuhete 38%
The model gave 62% on Orrai + 4 — the game was taken by Tcuhete.
Model check result
Model favoriteOrrai + 4 · 62%
Series resultTcuhete 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1