Кубок России Сбера 2025 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
20Twiceloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
7О7 ошибокwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
20Twice
Bristlebackoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
7 ошибок
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 560 bans
Dark Willow
388 picks · 229 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 421 bans
Puck
331 picks · 864 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 478 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 895 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 305 bans
Nature's Prophet
292 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 7 ошибок
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% 20Twice
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:42
20Twice 52%7 ошибок 48%
The model gave 52% on 20Twice — the game was taken by 7 ошибок in 25:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastDominic
UrsaDinozavrik
39% · 40 games
Marciazimoff
45% · 16 games
DisruptorsmN
Game 2prediction correct40:22
20Twice 52%7 ошибок 48%
The model gave 52% on 20Twice — the game was taken by 20Twice in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomDominic
SvenDinozavrik
31% · 25 games
Axeazimoff
52% · 25 games
DisruptorsmN
Game 3prediction missed24:38
20Twice 50%7 ошибок 50%
The model gave 50% on 20Twice — the game was taken by 7 ошибок in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsDominic
AbaddonDinozavrik
51% · 33 games
Marciazimoff
50% · 10 games
BanesmN
Model check result
Model favorite20Twice · 51%
Series result7 ошибок 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3