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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
43%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 16 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 31 game
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 24 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 17 games
41%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
shiro · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Xm · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 357 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
359 picks · 426 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 619 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 476 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
315 picks · 603 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 343 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
304 picks · 166 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 216 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:17
Nigma Galaxy 49%Vici Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 55:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperLorenof
58% · 114 games49% · 489 games
Tinyshiro
Tiny
Axe
AxeDavai
46% · 200 games51% · 343 games
Shadow FiendXm
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
49% · 309 games53% · 240 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
53% · 504 games48% · 143 games
Miranay`
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
47% · 117 games44% · 29 games
Elder TitanXinQ
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Nigma Galaxy 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
50% · 233 games50% · 243 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
53% · 168 games48% · 431 game
PuckXm
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
44% · 475 games53% · 160 games
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaGH
53% · 124 games51% · 320 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
56% · 323 games42% · 169 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 50%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2