ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AAFloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
Lionsignature
aik · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
AF
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 432 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 82%AF 18%
The model gave 82% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1