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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team wkwkwkloss 0:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Montewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team wkwkwk

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Xepher · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Handsken · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Xepher · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
s4 · 4 games
25%
Techies
Techies
Xepher · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Smiling Knight · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
s4 · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
0%

Monte

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 3 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 432 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 406 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 202 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 112 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Team wkwkwk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team wkwkwk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:49
Team wkwkwk 66%Monte 34%
The model gave 66% on Team wkwkwk — the game was taken by Monte in 46:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam wkwkwk · 66%
Series resultMonte 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1