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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
V1dar Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V1dar Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Groom · 1 game
0%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 430 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 631 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% V1dar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:29
V1dar Gaming 26%Yellow Submarine 74%
The model gave 74% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 74%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1