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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimeloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 9 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 8 games
63%
Viper
Vipersignature
Armel · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
57%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 20 games
35%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Riddys · 19 games
42%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Niku · 19 games
47%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 19 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
531 picks · 321 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 586 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 361 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 217 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 868 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:31
PlayTime 41%Natus Vincere 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
46% · 332 games50% · 193 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Largo
LargoFrank
55% · 76 games51% · 172 games
Underlordpma
Underlord
Alchemist
AlchemistWits
50% · 94 games47% · 195 games
Monkey KingNiku
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderElmisho
51% · 222 games48% · 182 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Marci
MarciScofield
48% · 109 games56% · 91 game
VenomancerRiddys
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct15:31
PlayTime 37%Natus Vincere 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
45% · 345 games55% · 220 games
Windrangergotthejuice
Windranger
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWits
51% · 316 games53% · 189 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Techies
TechiesElmisho
54% · 67 games52% · 229 games
Axepma
Axe
Slardar
SlardarFrank
54% · 335 games50% · 262 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageScofield
43% · 127 games45% · 290 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2