ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Night Pulsewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
Rubick
Panto · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
Panto · 7 games
Night Pulse
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 630 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 36%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 67%Night Pulse 33%
The model gave 67% on One Move — the game was taken by Night Pulse.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 67%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1