ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nemesis Cursewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Nemesis Curse
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
Tobi · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Tusk
dEsire · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Kidaro · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 430 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 630 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
KZ TEAM 73%Nemesis Curse 27%
The model gave 73% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Nemesis Curse.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 73%
Series resultNemesis Curse 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1