ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
Lionsignature
aik · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Clockwerk
dark · 2 games
Earthshaker
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lagoona · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:8
Nemiga Gaming 57%Matreshka Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunav1olent-
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Puckxn丶e
TidehunterDkFogas
Enigmazenica
Enchantressantoha
BatriderHellscream
Tuskaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1