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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Slardar
Slardarsignature
SSS · 33 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 22 games
64%
Kez
Kezsignature
Satanic · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 18 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
9Class · 18 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 41 game
51%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 26 games
65%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 24 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 24 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
531 picks · 321 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 586 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 361 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 217 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
344 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 868 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total87% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:7
PARIVISION 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
47% · 108 games50% · 36 games
Lunarincyq
Luna
Huskar
HuskarNo[o]ne
52% · 60 games48% · 198 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeNoticed
46% · 150 games55% · 67 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Clockwerk
Clockwerk9Class
46% · 133 games58% · 153 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernDukalis
50% · 25 games45% · 22 games
IoGH
Io
Game 2prediction correct59:14
PARIVISION 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezSatanic
48% · 128 games47% · 228 games
Gyrocopterrincyq
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
49% · 287 games61% · 82 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Axe
AxeNoticed
52% · 161 game50% · 335 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Clockwerk
Clockwerk9Class
52% · 123 games52% · 42 games
IoGH
Io
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDukalis
43% · 59 games47% · 71 game
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 87%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2