ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KOBOLDSloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
Marsoften banned
JG · 7 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Rubick
Hishge · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Techies
Bombi · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 4 games
KOBOLDS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Neon Esports 79%KOBOLDS 21%
The model gave 79% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 79%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1