ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MAG.Indonesiawin 1:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Carstenszloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MAG.Indonesia
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% MAG.Indonesia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MAG.Indonesia 49%Carstensz 51%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 51%
Series resultMAG.Indonesia 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1