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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
White Dragonswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Silkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

White Dragons

Tusk
Tusk
Hyko · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Yor · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Yor · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
hFn · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Yor · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
hFn · 2 games
50%

Silk

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 404 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 628 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 200 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 111 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Silk
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% White Dragons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:13
White Dragons 53%Silk 47%
The model gave 53% on White Dragons — the game was taken by White Dragons in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsahFn
48% · 57 games36% · 100 games
MorphlingDM
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaMr.Jeans
62% · 45 games50% · 101 game
ClockwerkShakaLord
Clockwerk
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFCR
63% · 19 games
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterHyko
64% · 40 games
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYor
50% · 40 games
Game 2prediction correct
White Dragons 55%Silk 45%
The model gave 55% on White Dragons — the game was taken by White Dragons.
Model check result
Model favoriteWhite Dragons · 55%
Series resultWhite Dragons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2