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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Chimera Esportswin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Chimera Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Chuvash · 5 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 3 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Nande · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Chuvash · 2 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Nande · 2 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
re1bl · 2 games
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 426 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
271 picks · 402 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
258 picks · 440 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 624 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 206 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
222 picks · 198 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 107 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 304 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:6
Chimera Esports 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painre1bl
50% · 194 games52% · 160 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Slark
SlarkNande
52% · 161 game51% · 41 game
Dazzlezenica
Dazzle
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
57% · 156 games54% · 312 games
Pangolierxn丶e
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressChuvash
44% · 245 games48% · 273 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Lion
LionOneJey
51% · 135 games43% · 105 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed41:31
Chimera Esports 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 52:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNande
57% · 54 games53% · 107 games
Lunav1olent-
Luna
Puck
Puckre1bl
48% · 193 games51% · 101 game
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusBb3px
50% · 186 games48% · 143 games
Centaur Warrunnerzenica
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOneJey
50% · 269 games48% · 204 games
TechiesHellscream
Techies
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritChuvash
53% · 100 games45% · 247 games
Tuskaik
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 69%
Series resultChimera Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2