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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IHC Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
89%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Mac · 5 games
40%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 8 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
Se · 5 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Se · 4 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 424 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
271 picks · 399 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 617 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 205 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
222 picks · 196 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 103 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 300 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total65% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:7
Geek Fam 65%IHC Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 28:00.
Game 2prediction missed7:28
Geek Fam 65%IHC Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 32:23.
Game 3prediction correct20:11
Geek Fam 65%IHC Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 65%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3