ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Keeper of the Lightsignature
DJ · 7 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Shadow Demon
DJ · 3 games
Techies
Poloson · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
Rubick
Hishge · 7 games
Marsoften banned
JG · 6 games
Pucksignature
Ken · 6 games
Dark Willow
Hishge · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 4 games
Techies
Bombi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
271 picks · 399 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 617 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 205 bans
Lion
222 picks · 196 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 103 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:2
Bleed Esports 48%Neon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 18:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenMikoto
MarsJG
LifestealerJaCkky
PuckKen
Bounty HunterDJ
TechiesBombi
Winter WyvernPoloson
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Bleed Esports 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidJaCkky
TimbersawJG
PangolierMikoto
Ember SpiritKen
RubickDJ
Dark WillowBombi
EnchantressPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 51%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2