ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction11换1loss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TGthe goal of all life is deathwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1换1
Doomoften banned
zeal · 1 game
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
7e · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
ukiyo · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
zzq · 1 game
the goal of all life is death
Storm Spiritoften banned
blessing · 1 game
Techies
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
271 picks · 399 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 615 bans
Tusk
223 picks · 205 bans
Lion
222 picks · 195 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 101 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% 1换1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% 1换1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:30
1换1 58%the goal of all life is death 42%
The model gave 58% on 1换1 — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 24:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunaukiyo
Ember Spiritblessing
Magnus7e
Techiesomoxiloyi
Enigmazeal
ClinkzpLAnet
Clockwerkzzq
Game 2prediction missed28:38
1换1 59%the goal of all life is death 41%
The model gave 59% on 1换1 — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linaukiyo
Ember Spiritblessing
Death Prophetzeal
Tuskomoxiloyi
Pangolier7e
BatriderpLAnet
Dawnbreakerzzq
Model check result
Model favorite1换1 · 67%
Series resultthe goal of all life is death 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2