ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Gods of Hellloss 0:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Silkwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gods of Hell
No games played over 6 months.
Silk
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 3 games
Slarkoften banned
DM · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 615 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 204 bans
Lion
222 picks · 193 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 100 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Gods of Hell
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Silk
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:36
Gods of Hell 34%Silk 66%
The model gave 66% on Silk — the game was taken by Silk in 38:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteSilk · 66%
Series resultSilk 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1