ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HHotHeadedRebornloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Luna
kAAN · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
HotHeadedReborn
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 611 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 203 bans
Lion
222 picks · 193 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 98 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% HotHeadedReborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:51
No Bounty Hunter 53%HotHeadedReborn 47%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by HotHeadedReborn in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistkAAN
MarsZore
Game 2prediction missed39:17
No Bounty Hunter 48%HotHeadedReborn 52%
The model gave 52% on HotHeadedReborn — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunakAAN
BrewmasterZore
Game 3prediction missed43:35
No Bounty Hunter 49%HotHeadedReborn 51%
The model gave 51% on HotHeadedReborn — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MagekAAN
WeaverZore
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 52%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3