ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
TiltedBoys
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Techies
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 609 bans
Tusk
224 picks · 203 bans
Lion
221 picks · 193 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 96 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:5
GRIN esports 48%TiltedBoys 52%
The model gave 52% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 24:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDouble King
Hoodwinkbgod
MagnusDaaD-
SnapfireFrancisLee
ChenBloody Nine
Game 2prediction missed36:19
GRIN esports 49%TiltedBoys 51%
The model gave 51% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
VisageDaaD-
Lionbgod
LifestealerDouble King
SnapfireFrancisLee
EnchantressBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 52%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2