ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 1:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Wwolfteamloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
wolfteam
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 403 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 438 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 607 bans
Lion
221 picks · 190 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 96 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% wolfteam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:12
GRIN esports 56%wolfteam 44%
The model gave 56% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 21:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 56%
Series resultGRIN esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1