ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TheRuneloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 21 game
Lion
Riddys · 19 games
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
Snapfire
Daze · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 12 games
TheRune
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 423 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 607 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
Lion
221 picks · 190 bans
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 96 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% TheRune
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 62%TheRune 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1