ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Ban9PivoSamogonloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 15 games
Lionsignature
so bad · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Malr1ne · 6 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 425 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 404 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 605 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
Lion
220 picks · 189 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 95 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Nemiga Gaming 82%Ban9PivoSamogon 18%
The model gave 82% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1