ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Kleewin 1:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Klee
No games played over 6 months.
Yellow Submarine
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 403 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 605 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
220 picks · 188 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 94 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Team Klee
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
Team Klee 75%Yellow Submarine 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 75%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1