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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Movewin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team NextUploss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
30%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 10 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
89%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
43%

Team NextUp

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernaut
7jesu · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
forcemajor · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Petushara · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 424 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 403 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 605 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
220 picks · 188 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 94 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team NextUp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
One Move 58%Team NextUp 42%
The model gave 58% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 58%
Series resultOne Move 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1