ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ppluselevenmmrwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 9 games
pluselevenmmr
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 403 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 605 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
220 picks · 188 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 94 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Level UP 69%pluselevenmmr 31%
The model gave 69% on Level UP — the game was taken by pluselevenmmr.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 69%
Series resultpluselevenmmr 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1