ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Titanwin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Dark Horseloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Titan
Lion
mercy · 4 games
Tusk
mercy · 4 games
Doomoften banned
ELeVeN · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
Zeus
Setsu · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Undyne_ · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
Dark Horse
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 402 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 604 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
220 picks · 188 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Dark Horse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Titan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
Titan 66%Dark Horse 34%
The model gave 66% on Titan — the game was taken by Titan in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightDust
Clockwerksheep
Razorflyfly
TimbersawELeVeN
Shadow Demonmercy
PudgeUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteTitan · 80%
Series resultTitan 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1