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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 1:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
DJ · 7 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
0%
Techies
Techies
Poloson · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
67%

InterActive Philippines

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 422 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 602 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
220 picks · 188 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 93 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 298 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
Bleed Esports 68%InterActive Philippines 32%
The model gave 68% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordJaCkky
38% · 12 games54% · 153 games
MorphlingNishababy
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
51% · 81 game
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDJ
46% · 52 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPoloson
50% · 8 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 80%
Series resultBleed Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1