ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 1:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FFindGaGenkloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Jing · 7 games
Dark Willow
Jing · 6 games
Svensignature
Ulnit · 6 games
Warlock
Skem · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Skem · 5 games
Bounty Hunter
Mac · 5 games
FindGaGenk
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
290 picks · 422 bans
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 600 bans
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
Lion
219 picks · 188 bans
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 93 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Geek Fam 88%FindGaGenk 12%
The model gave 88% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 26:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 88%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1