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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Eagleloss 0:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:1
the goal of all life is deathwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eagle

Muerta
Muertaoften banned
ukiyo · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%

the goal of all life is death

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 421 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 399 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 597 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 204 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
219 picks · 187 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 93 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 295 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Eagle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:30
Eagle 53%the goal of all life is death 47%
The model gave 53% on Eagle — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkManic
52% · 78 games55% · 160 games
Storm Spiritblessing
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerAsh
41% · 120 games53% · 192 games
Techiesomoxiloyi
Techies
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHara
48% · 106 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTz.
45% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEagle · 60%
Series resultthe goal of all life is death 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1