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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tickleswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 18 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 16 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 14 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 24 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 20 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Force · 13 games
62%
Luna
Luna
Ulnit · 12 games
42%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
NARMAN · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
290 picks · 418 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
273 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 440 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
226 picks · 598 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
219 picks · 187 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 297 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 92 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:20
KZ TEAM 48%Team Tickles 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
43% · 441 game53% · 181 game
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Doom
DoomSkyLark
49% · 386 games51% · 372 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Slark
SlarkOtaker
49% · 172 games45% · 183 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
49% · 131 game56% · 256 games
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Lich
LichSsaSpartan
53% · 159 games52% · 297 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Game 2prediction correct2:33
KZ TEAM 44%Team Tickles 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaOtaker
50% · 105 games50% · 132 games
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Lina
LinaSupream^
46% · 104 games58% · 56 games
WindrangerUlnit
Windranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkyLark
48% · 127 games50% · 69 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Io
IoSsaSpartan
55% · 62 games49% · 172 games
TuskDukalis
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
39% · 97 games54% · 66 games
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct5:26
KZ TEAM 49%Team Tickles 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 21:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistOtaker
60% · 130 games53% · 228 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherSkyLark
52% · 117 games47% · 73 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
47% · 317 games41% · 221 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAstral
49% · 95 games49% · 197 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
51% · 129 games53% · 69 games
IoDukalis
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 55%
Series resultTeam Tickles 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3