European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ninja Penguins
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 5 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 2 games
Meepooften banned
Copy · 2 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 20 games
Lion
Riddys · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 16 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 13 games
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
Pugnaoften banned
Riddys · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 418 bans
Phoenix
273 picks · 401 bans
Grimstroke
258 picks · 439 bans
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 597 bans
Lion
217 picks · 186 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 297 bans
Vengeful Spirit
211 picks · 92 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:6
Ninja Penguins 56%Natus Vincere Junior 44%
The model gave 56% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 26:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EnigmaCorrupted
Slarkgotthejuice
TinyCopy
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Faceless VoidLowskill
WindrangerNiku
SnapfireMiLAN
Shadow DemonDaze
MagnusdEsire
LionRiddys
Game 2prediction missed18:34
Ninja Penguins 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoCopy
Ursagotthejuice
MarsCorrupted
KunkkaNiku
LifestealerLowskill
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
SnapfireDaze
LiondEsire
GrimstrokeRiddys
Game 3prediction correct30:22
Ninja Penguins 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaLowskill
Morphlinggotthejuice
Queen of PainCopy
TimbersawNiku
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Vengeful Spiritpma
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
SnapfireRiddys
RubickdEsire
MarciDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 64%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3