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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 38 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 27 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boxi · 24 games
67%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
74%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 22 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
492 picks · 585 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 357 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
391 picks · 215 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
345 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 864 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 852 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:38
Team Liquid 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
52% · 216 games46% · 294 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
47% · 296 games47% · 405 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
53% · 403 games48% · 449 games
MarsATF
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
54% · 545 games55% · 244 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
52% · 190 games46% · 258 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed10:29
Team Liquid 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
54% · 204 games46% · 322 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
51% · 135 games47% · 274 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
47% · 131 game39% · 63 games
ViperATF
Viper
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
60% · 120 games55% · 42 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Rubick
RubickBoxi
50% · 196 games52% · 85 games
LargoCr1t-
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2