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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 20 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 16 games
19%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 16 games
63%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 12 games
25%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 12 games
50%

B8 Esports

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
65%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 15 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Dendi · 14 games
86%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
33%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
287 picks · 414 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 437 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 595 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
213 picks · 185 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 301 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
209 picks · 90 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total67% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:17
Natus Vincere Junior 41%B8 Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
59% · 174 games50% · 118 games
Templar AssassinFocus
Templar Assassin
Broodmother
Broodmotherpma
48% · 175 games49% · 98 games
KunkkaDendi
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
56% · 370 games53% · 214 games
DoomStoneBank
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
42% · 187 games48% · 451 game
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Lion
LionRiddys
45% · 183 games50% · 208 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed27:12
Natus Vincere Junior 39%B8 Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
46% · 251 game54% · 100 games
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
53% · 241 game46% · 58 games
ZeusDendi
Zeus
Viper
Viperpma
54% · 33 games53% · 96 games
Centaur WarrunnerStoneBank
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDaze
51% · 288 games45% · 528 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Lion
LionRiddys
48% · 126 games54% · 157 games
PugnaMary_y
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 67%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2