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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 8 games
25%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 20 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 14 games
21%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 413 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
229 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 593 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
211 picks · 185 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 301 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
209 picks · 90 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:22
MarsBet Team 59%Natus Vincere Junior 41%
The model gave 59% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 43:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkLukas
52% · 172 games49% · 201 game
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierW1sh-
52% · 351 game48% · 164 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
50% · 127 games52% · 132 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
49% · 141 game47% · 282 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
52% · 117 games48% · 129 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction correct32:20
MarsBet Team 57%Natus Vincere Junior 43%
The model gave 57% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawW1sh-
56% · 148 games46% · 132 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Luna
LunaLukas
52% · 98 games50% · 307 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerMr. Luck
55% · 99 games55% · 27 games
Night Stalkerpma
Night Stalker
Tiny
TinyBignum
47% · 263 games45% · 120 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
56% · 123 games45% · 145 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 64%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2